Heuristics

I was introduced to the work of Dr. Daniel Kahneman.   He won a Nobel prize for economics,  but he is a psychologist, and a professor at Princeton University.  Dr. Kahneman presents the results of his research.  He has demonstrated that our intuition is almost always less reliable than statistical models.  Even when we ask experts to make decisions about things they know well,  they are less reliable than established formulas.  After reviewing his publication, and speech,  I learned that I may be predicting what can happen to my patients,  by using my memory of what happened in the past, instead of actually using mathematical probability.
When I am trying to make decisions,  I need to consciously try and use my analytical memory before my intuitive thinking process. The two "systems of thought" or "two modes of thinking" :  Intuition, and reasoning are complementary.  I have made quick decisions in the past in a rapid and intuitive way, but not having taken the time to reason out the facts, I may have made an error in judgment.   This has significant implications in the way I need to change my diagnostic skills.  I need to take the time to gather the data,  reason it in my head,  and  even use a computerized decision support systems, to make the best diagnosis.  Sometimes I may make a diagnosis based on the context of the situation, or the network of associations.  If I can get feedback on my decisions immediately,  I can develop better decision making skills.   This is a compelling reason why decision support in the form of computerized decision making programs can be so valuable.